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For the tenth time, the Premier League title race is going down to the very last day. So who will be celebrating this weekend, the supporters of Manchester City or Arsenal?
If Manchester City defeats West Ham at home on Sunday, May 19, 16:00 BST, they would go two points clear at the top and become the first team to win four straight Premier League titles.
However, if Arsenal defeats Everton at Emirates Stadium in a match that takes place simultaneously and City loses, Arsenal will win the championship.
Should Arsenal lose, City will win the championship. The Gunners are the underdogs since no team has ever won the Premier League title on the last day of play after finishing second.
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What are the Stats Saying?: Do Arsenal have a Chance?
Opta estimates that City is still the frontrunner with an 84% chance to win the Premier League, while Arsenal’s odds are at 16%.
If City had lost to Tottenham on Tuesday, the Gunners would have had an 81% chance of winning the championship, and a 75% chance if the game had finished in a draw.
According to Nielsen’s Gracenote head of analysis Simon Gleave, Manchester City has an 83.5% chance of winning the title compared to Arsenal’s 16.5%.
Prior to Manchester City’s 2-0 victory over Tottenham, City led Arsenal in chances taken, 60% to 40%.
Gleave added: “Arsenal’s incredible run of 15 wins in 17 matches since the turn of the year would probably have been enough to win the league in most seasons, but Manchester City have proven formidable title race opponents and have won 15 of their 18 matches over the same period.”
What happens if Arsenal and Manchester City finish level on points?
If there is a tie, the league is determined by goal difference, followed by goals scored, most points earned in head-to-head play, and most goals scored away from home in the head-to-head record.
Arsenal’s goal difference of 61 is superior to City’s goal difference of 60.
Should the two clubs end tied, it would mean that City would need to draw, maintaining their current goal difference, and Arsenal would need to triumph, adding to their already impressive total.
On the last day of the season, don’t be too shocked if there are additional twists and turns
