After an exhilarating and exhausting season of domestic football ended with Real Madrid lifting the Champions League, attention turns to the highly-anticipated summer of international action.
Euro 2024 is just days away and England have been revealed as the favourites to win the summer tournament in Germany.
Excitement is building ahead of the opener as the Three Lions look to avenge their defeat to Italy in the final three years ago at Wembley and there is good news for Gareth Southgate’s men.
According to the Opta Supercomputer, the 2021 finalists are most likely to dethrone reigning champions Italy.
The 17th edition of the European Championships will see Georgia compete for the first time alongside 23 returning nations who will battle it out for the honour of winning a major trophy on their country’s behalf.
Ahead of the tournament, Stats Perform have been putting in the research alongside Opta to simulate Euro 2024 10,000 times and decipher which teams have the highest chance of coming out on top.
Read on to discover the five favourites and why they will fancy their shot at glory.
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📰 Table Of Contents
Portugal – 9.2%
Coming in at No.5 is Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal.
Their record at the Euros is quite impressive and while they did not challenge in the last tournament, they will fancy their chances in Germany.
As the strongest team in Group F, it would not be a surprise to see Roberto Martinez’s side breeze past Georgia, Turkey and the Czech Republic.
They have progressed from the first round in each of their last eight attempts and despite his new adventures in Saudi Arabia, Portugal have one of the best players in the world lining up for them.
Ronaldo has 14 goals at the Euros, no player has scored more than the 39-year-old.
With a perfect record in qualifying too, Portugal will be full of confidence and aiming to repeat their triumph from 2016.
🤤🤤@Alipay | #EUROSkills pic.twitter.com/qJpTuX54rF
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 3, 2024
Spain – 9.6%
Edging Portugal to fourth spot is a young Spain side led by Luis de la Fuente.
The three-time winners will have to advance through a tough Group B that also has Italy, Croatia and Albania in it but they have only lost twice in their last 22 matches at the Euros, excluding penalty shootouts.
Four of their last five knockout matches have been decided by extra-time or penalties, suggesting La Roja are difficult to beat, even if they are not yet the finished product.
Alvaro Morata is the man to watch for the 2012 winners and after scoring 21 times for Atletico Madrid in 2023-24, he will lead Spain out for Euro 2024.
De la Fuente’s men were dumped out of the 2022 World Cup in a shock defeat to Morocco but in this new era following Luis Enrique’s departure, things seem different.
Spain only lost once in their qualifying campaign and scored eight more goals than second-placed Scotland.
Their first two matches against Croatia and Italy will likely shape their entire campaign but it is not going to be an easy ride for the men in red.
Which teams will make it to the knockout stage from Group B?! #EUROpredictor | #Betano
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 4, 2024
Germany – 12.4%
10 of the previous 16 European Championships have been won by either Germany, Spain, France or Italy and it would not be surprising to see one of them do it again in 2024.
Hosts Germany have a strong squad and are operating under former Bayern Munich coach Julian Nagelsmann.
Their performances in major tournaments over the last 10 years have been way below standards but they are making strong steps towards becoming a force to be reckoned with once again.
Die Mannschaft have not actually won a knockout game since Euro 2016 and to stack the odds against them even further, no host nation has won the Euros since France in 1984.
Germany have a great mix of youth and experience in their squad. Toni Kroos, Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller will all be lining up for their country while the likes of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala should also feature.
It may be a long shot to suggest Nagelsmann’s side will win the tournament, but after defeating France and the Netherlands in March, they have already proved to be capable of competing against the best in the world.
A Germany debut for Aleksandar Pavlović in their friendly against Ukraine 🇩🇪💫#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/JIGapX4jh9
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 4, 2024
France – 19.1%
France will compete at Euro 2024 not as favourites, but they are a very close second.
They are one of two teams nearing a 20% chance of becoming champions and fall just behind England.
With the way the group stages are set up, the two nations could meet in the semi-final and memories of the 2022 World Cup quarter-final will still be fresh in the memory of both Gareth Southgate and Les Bleus boss Didier Deschamps.
Kylian Mbappe will be raring to go after announcing his move to Real Madrid and he has been in hot form for his country.
With 12 goals in his last 18 games at international tournaments, he is going be a huge threat to Poland, the Netherlands and Austria in Group D.
Deschamps is looking to become the first person to lift the World Cup and European Championship trophies as both a player and manager, so his motivation will undoubtedly match those on the pitch.
Kanté 👀😂#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/UGkIOPcCJy
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 3, 2024
England – 19.9%
Expectations are at an all-time high for the Three Lions after coming so close to glory at Euro 2020.
Their premature exit from the recent World Cup was also a painful experience for all England fans, especially considering the talent that exists in their squad.
Despite having that talent, you feel England will not succeed unless both Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are at their best.
Kane is fresh from winning the European Golden Boot and Bellingham has just won the Champions League with Real Madrid, so there is hope that both can carry their form into the summer.
The group stages never seem to cause Southgate’s men a problem, but games that are decided in a moment are where they have notoriously struggled.
If they want it to really ‘come home’, they will need to avoid a repeat of their missed chances against the French in Qatar two years ago.
🥶#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/CzD5I1eQJN
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) June 4, 2024
