The Champions League is set for a dramatic final week with some big names, most notably Manchester City, scrapping to avoid elimination.
There were plenty of sceptics when UEFA unveiled a new format for their premier competition but it has provided some good storylines heading into Matchday Eight.
The biggest is whether City, the 2023 winners and four-time defending Premier League champions, will avoid elimination.
📰 Table Of Contents
So, what do we know so far?
Top-eight guaranteed: Liverpool, Barcelona
Top-24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
Uncertain of progression: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
Eliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
One matchday to go! 😲#UCL pic.twitter.com/jEYfEM9kTC
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025
Likely Scenarios
Top-eight (places 1-8)
A mathematical miracle is required to deny Arsenal and Inter Milan, they are as good as through.
The same can pretty much be said for Atletico Madrid and AC Milan.
That leaves Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen as maybes. Given Leverkusen host lowly Sparta Prague, it seems unlikely Xabi Alonso’s men won’t progress. Atalanta have to visit Barcelona, an altogether more difficult task.
Should the Europa League champions come unstuck in Catalonia, Aston Villa could take advantage and slip into the top eight with victory over Celtic at Villa Park.
Playoffs (places 9-24)
There are some big names floating around in positions nine to 24 currently – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain to name but three.
Madrid and Bayern will look to win their final games to lock in a seeded spot which means they won’t be able to face another side ranked nine to 16.
PSG’s hopes were given a major boost following their stunning comeback from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 4-2 at the Parc des Princes last night.
Those looking in from the outside (places 25-36)
City head a list of three teams that sit outside the playoff spots currently but who could still advance. The list also includes Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Pep Guardiola’s expensively assembled side are two points from the play-off spots and have to beat Club Brugge at the Etihad next week to stand any chance. In normal seasons, that would be viewed as a gimme but City have been uncharacteristically poor this term and they will come up against a Brugge side unbeaten in 19 games.
All the other sides are eliminated.
Here are the Opta Supercomputer projections after tonight’s games and with just one matchday remaining of the UEFA Champions League league phase in 2024-25.
Keep up to date on https://t.co/EZ2xKssZGg ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yoJYbJOBry
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 22, 2025
How do the playoffs work?
The teams finishing nine to 16 are seeded and will play a team that finished 17 to 24 over two legs with the second leg at home.
The teams are placed into pairs for a mini draw. So, the teams that finish in ninth and 10th will play the teams that finished 23 or 24th. Likewise, the teams that finished 11th and 12th will play the teams that finished 21st or 22nd.
The eight sides that win in the playoff round will move forward to the round of 16 to face the eight teams that qualified automatically via the group stage.
When is the playoff draw?
The draw will take place at 11am UK GMT on Friday, January 31.
ℹ️ New format. New draw.#UCLdraw | #UELdraw | #UECLdraw pic.twitter.com/QKTwVPMhQU
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 20, 2024
When do the playoff games take place?
They are staged over two weeks.
The first legs take place on February 11th and 12th with the second legs a week later on February 18th and 19th.
