The New Year. A time for reflection, resolutions, and predicting exactly where each team will finish at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
While we cannot accurately predict how many times you’ll use that shiny new gym membership over the next few months, or how strictly you’ll stick to that ‘new year, new me’ mantra, Opta’s League Prediction model does help paint a picture of how the table might look by the time May swings around.
Using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings, the model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), based on historical and recent team performances.
Those outcomes are then used to simulate the remaining league fixtures thousands of times to see how often teams finished in each position to create a prediction for the final table.
So, as the Premier League reaches its half-way point, grab the last of the Boxing Day leftovers as we look at how the Premier League table might shape up in five months time.
📰 Table Of Contents
Liverpool to lift the trophy
Somewhat unsurprisingly, Arne Slot’s side sit top of the prediction pile, with a 91.3% likelihood of lifting the Premier League trophy.
The Reds are currently eight points clear having lost just once so far this season in all competitions. Despite worrying matters off the pitch – namely, the ongoing uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool have been in scintillating form on it.
They have won their last three league games in a row, scoring 14 goals in the process. They put six past Tottenham on 22 December before scoring five without reply against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
Ending 2024 with a win in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two wins in 14 games in all competitions. By their standards, City’s form of late has been pretty abysmal.
But while it seems highly unlikely the champions will retain their Premier League crown this term, they are a side that can never be truly written off.
Given their dominance in previous seasons, Opta still has them at a 40.8% chance of finishing in fourth spot. They are currently in fifth having ended the year with a much-needed 2-0 victory over Leicester – a result that manager Pep Guardiola labelled “a relief”.
Forest will not repeat Leicester City’s remarkable feat
Despite scaling the lofty heights of second place this term, according to Opta, high-flying Forest have no chance of repeating the Foxes’ title-winning heroics of 2015-16.
The prediction model gives them a 0% chance of finishing top, but predicts Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will end the campaign in a respectable fifth spot.
We’re in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024
The drop zone
Unlike Forest, the predicted table does make for pleasant viewing for fans of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton.
All three sides promoted from the Championship last term are predicted to go straight back down, with the struggling Saints given a 83.8% chance of staying rooted to the bottom of the league.
New manager Ivan Juric said his style of football draws similarities to death metal music but he’ll be hoping their is still life in his team for the second half of the season.
Bottom half finish for Manchester United
United have been given a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new boss Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled for any kind of consistency in recent weeks, having won four, drawn one and lost five during the Portuguese manager’s time in charge.
Their next three fixtures – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away, and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately define their season.
The predicted Premier League table
According to Opta:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Aston Villa
8. Bournemouth
9. Tottenham
10. Fulham
11. Brighton
12. Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. West Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
