Amongst the big four North American sports leagues, no position has a more immediate impact on a team’s success than quarterback. Unsurprisingly, the four QBs left in the 2025 playoffs are some of the best in the NFL. When the quarterback play is so evenly matched, other factors often determine a team’s postseason success.
Just look at the Baltimore Ravens. Even though quarterback Lamar Jackson outplayed Buffalo’s Josh Allen from a statistical standpoint, Baltimore still lost because of crucial mistakes by longtime tight end Mark Andrews.
The same can be said for the Los Angeles Rams. Matthew Stafford had a better quarterback rating than Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, but Los Angeles lost because the team wasn’t able to overcome the inclement weather.
Since we know that QB play isn’t the only thing that will impact a franchise’s ability to win, let’s take a look at each team’s biggest non-quarterback X-factor heading into Conference Championship Weekend.
📰 Table Of Contents
Eagles – Pass Blocking
It seems like Saquon Barkley would be an obvious choice to be Philadelphia’s X-factor, but even when the Eagles lost to the Commanders in Week 16, Saquon still managed to rush for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Philly could still lose even if Barkley performs well.
From everything that has happened so far in the playoffs, it’s clear that the Eagles’ offensive line will play a massive role in how things shake out in the NFC Championship.
While three of Philadelphia’s five offensive linemen were named to the Pro Bowl, the Eagles finished the regular season with the 13th-most sacks allowed in the NFL. That issue has been highlighted in the postseason, where Philly has surrendered nine sacks, the most amongst the four remaining playoff teams. Though the Eagles have still managed to win their postseason matchups, this problem could cause Philadelphia’s downfall.
It’s also worth noting that Jalen Hurts is banged up. He’s a fierce competitor who will almost certainly play this Sunday, but his knee injury will likely limit his mobility and make him more susceptible to sacks. Therefore, the Eagles’ offensive line will need to work even harder to not only limit drive-killing sacks but also preserve the health of the franchise QB.
In the Eagles’ 16 wins, the team has given up 43 total sacks, which equates to 2.69 quarterback takedowns per game. In losses, that number increases to 3.67 sacks per game. This tells me that Philly must avoid giving up more than three sacks in the NFC Championship. If Washington can bring down Jalen Hurts four times or more, then the Eagles’ season will likely end this weekend.
Commanders – Third-Down Defense
Washington was pretty good on the defensive side of the ball when it came to stopping teams on third down during the regular season. They were tied with the Texans for the eighth-fewest third-down conversions allowed all year.
The Commanders gave up 79 third-down conversions on 207 attempts during the regular season, a conversion rate of 38.16%. Despite holding teams to a conversion rate of 32.62% in their regular-season wins, that number has jumped up to 44.44% in the playoffs. While that sounds bad, that’s actually the best rate among the four teams left in the postseason.
The third-down defense looked entirely different in Washington’s five losses. During those games, the Commanders allowed 33 conversions on 66 attempts (50%), meaning their opponents converted every other third-down try. This won’t be good enough to defeat the Eagles, who found success on 56.25% of their third downs when these teams first matched up at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11. Though the Commanders’ defense was much better in its second game against Philly, Jalen Hurts left that contest in the first quarter with a concussion, so their 3/16 performance was not truly indicative of what the Eagles are capable of.
Thankfully for the Commanders, Philly has been unimpressive on third down in the postseason. The Eagles’ 30.77% third-down conversion rate is tied with the Rams for the third-lowest mark amongst all teams that have played at least one playoff game.
In Washington’s 14 victories, the Commanders have only allowed a third-down conversion rate of 33.96%. Normally, that would be good enough to beat almost any team, but the Eagles have shown that they can still win games without consistent third-down success. If Washington wants to go into Philly and pull off the upset against their divisional rival, then the Commanders will have to hold the Eagles below 30% on third down.
Bills – The Running Back Room
Josh Allen is one of the league’s preeminent dual-threat quarterbacks with 597 rushing yards through the Divisional Round of the playoffs, second in Buffalo behind only running back James Cook. He also happened to be the team’s leading rusher in Week 11 when the Bills beat the Chiefs at home 30-21. Since Kansas City will be expecting Buffalo to use Josh Allen on the ground in the AFC Championship, the Bills’ running backs will need to step up when called upon and take some of the offensive load off of Allen’s shoulders.
The Chiefs struggled against the run in their lone playoff game. Despite facing the second-fewest rushing attempts amongst postseason teams (29), KC allowed 149 rushing yards and over 5.1 yards per carry. The only reason Kansas City didn’t give up more yards on the ground is because the Houston Texans basically abandoned the run after going down 20-12 in the fourth quarter. Following that touchdown, Houston ran the ball just one more time. With that in mind, Buffalo should keep going back to the run unless they fall behind by three scores or more.
During the regular season, Josh Allen and Buffalo’s three running backs – James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson – combined for 2,195 rushing yards. Allen accounted for almost a quarter of those yards. He’ll obviously always be a threat to take off with the ball, but when facing a Kansas City defense that was underwhelming against the pass (18th in yards per game allowed), Allen should be more focused on airing it out rather than running.
In the postseason, Cook, Johnson, and Davis have upped their production, combining for 294 rushing yards. The three also ran for 127 yards against the Baltimore Ravens, the NFL’s best team against the run. If that’s what they’re capable of against a squad that only gave up 80.1 rushing yards per game, imagine what they can do against a Chiefs defense that allows over 24 more yards per contest.
James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis will each need to make meaningful contributions on the ground for Buffalo to advance to the Super Bowl.
Chiefs – Steve Spagnuolo
If you read my playoff quarterback rankings list, then you know that it has been a disappointing year for Patrick Mahomes statistically. The three-time Super Bowl MVP’s passing yards and passing touchdowns are both down when compared to his 17-game career average. He has done enough for the Chiefs to advance to their seventh AFC Championship game in the last seven years, but Kansas City’s defense and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have played an equally important part in the team’s recent success.
Since Spagnuolo joined the Chiefs in 2019, Kansas City has reached the Super Bowl four times and won the big game three times. Last season might have been Spagnuolo’s crowning achievement when his unit finished the year second in points allowed and yards allowed. The defense improved in the playoffs, holding the Dolphins, Bills, Ravens, and 49ers to 15.75 points per game. Spags’ unit took a minor step this season (ninth in yards per game and fourth in points per game), but the results were even better than last year because the Chiefs increased their regular-season win total from 11 to 15.
One of Spagnuolo’s biggest challenges of the season will come this Sunday in the form of Josh Allen, who shredded KC’s defense in Week 11 for 317 total yards, a passing touchdown, and a rushing touchdown.
Forcing turnovers will be vital to Kansas City’s success. When these two first faced off, the Chiefs lost the turnover battle 2-1. Spagnuolo can bank on Mahomes taking better care of the ball this time around because he only has one interception and one lost fumble in his last eight playoff games. Spag’s defense will need to force at least one turnover in order to win the game and advance to the Super Bowl for a third consecutive year. It’s a tall task for Spagnuolo considering the Bills have the fewest giveaways in the NFL this season, but Buffalo is due to make a mistake after being turnover-free since the start of Week 17. If anybody can cause the Bills to make a mistake, it’s Steve Spagnuolo, a man who once led a defense that held Tom Brady and the 18-0 New England Patriots to 14 points in Super Bowl XLII.
