What used to be called the NFL Championship for decades was renamed the NFC Championship in 1970 following the merger between the National Football League and the American Football League. Since the start of the 1984 season, the winner of the National Football Conference has been awarded the George Halas Trophy every year as a reward for being the NFC’s best team.
Sunday will mark the Philadelphia Eagles’ ninth appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Heading into this weekend, Philly has a record of 4-4 in the NFCCG with their most recent win coming in 2023 against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Washington Commanders have not had nearly as much success reaching the conference championship game. Though they have six NFC Championship appearances under their belt, 1992 marked the last time Washington played in a game for the George Halas Trophy.
With so much at stake in the 183rd matchup of this 91-year rivalry, let’s take a look at the NFC Championship Game and predict the winner.
📰 Table Of Contents
Sunday Afternoon Game
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
While the season series is tied 1-1, the last game between these teams (a 36-33 Commanders win) is somewhat misleading because Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts left that matchup early in the first quarter with a concussion. Let’s be honest, Philly is not the same team with Kenny Pickett under center. Also, that game was held at Northwest Stadium, which probably gave the Commanders a slight advantage.
To get a better understanding of how the NFC Championship will truly play out, we need to analyze the Week 11 matchup between Philadelphia and Washington, even if it did take place on a Thursday. In that game – a 26-18 Eagles win – Philadelphia’s offense looked unstoppable with 434 total yards (6.2 yards per play). The Eagles’ passing attack was fine, but the running game gashed the Commanders for 228 yards at a clip of 5.7 yards per rush. For a team that averages 184.3 yards on the ground, it’s safe to say that Philadelphia’s offense exceeded expectations in that contest.
Simultaneously, Washington’s offense looked incredibly pedestrian. The Commanders’ 18-point output was tied for a season-low. Philly also did a fantastic job of getting Washington off the field by holding a team that converts 45.5% of its third downs to just three conversions on 12 attempts (25%). Obviously, the Commanders will need to be much better on offense and on third down if they want to be NFC Champions.
Though Washington’s phenomenal rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been very careful with the football in his first year as a pro, the Eagles know how to cause the young buck to make mistakes. Three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season came against Philadelphia. Despite his last turnover coming in Week 17, I predict the Eagles will force Daniels and the Commanders’ offense to turn the ball over at least once this Sunday.
It would seem that stopping running back Saquon Barkley would be the best path to victory, but that task seems almost impossible. In fact, Barkley has more games this season with 150+ rushing yards (six) than games with fewer than 100 rushing yards (five). Try all they want, Saquon will still finish the game with 100+ rushing yards. If by some miracle he doesn’t, then the Commanders will almost certainly move on to the Super Bowl.
I believe the best way for Washington to win this weekend is by making Jalen Hurts beat them. In both regular-season losses that Philly suffered where he played the entire game, Hurts attempted 30 passes. Meanwhile, he has only had to throw the ball 41 times in the playoffs. Forcing the Eagles to abandon the run and attempt more passes will require the Commanders to get out to an early lead. It’s much easier said than done, but if Washington can go up by two scores in the first quarter, Philly will be tempted to throw the ball more.
The Eagles’ formula for victory is much more straightforward: contain Jayden Daniels. However, that is an even more daunting assignment than trying to stop Saquon Barkley. In his last five full starts, Daniels has racked up 1,639 total yards (327.8 yards per game) and 14 total touchdowns. A repeat performance of Week 11 – when Philly held Daniels to one touchdown and 209 total yards – seems unlikely, but if Philadelphia can limit the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner to 260 total yards or less, then the Eagles will be in pretty good shape.
Philly also needs to get off the field on third down, which has been an area of concern for the Birds this postseason. The Eagles are allowing opponents to convert 44.8% of their third downs in the playoffs. Philadelphia will need to get that number below 40% if they want to advance to the Super Bowl.
I expect the Eagles to lean heavily on Saquon Barkley. He averages 129.4 rushing yards per game this season. On top of that, the Commanders are allowing almost 140 rushing yards per game in their last four matchups.
Washington’s sensational turnaround season falls one game short of the Super Bowl.
Eagles win 28-26
