Filling out a perfect March Madness bracket is almost impossible. In fact, the odds of getting every pick right are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (9.2 quintillion).

Since you’ll basically never be able to fill out a perfect bracket, the least that you can do is try and curate your selections to meet some of the fascinating NCAA Tournament trends that have emerged in recent years.

Here are four things you should consider when filling out your March Madness bracket.

Pick at least one 12-seed

The matchup between five seeds and 12 seeds is not as cut and dry as people may think. In 33 of the last 39 NCAA Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has beaten a five-seed. Last year, two 12-seeds beat five-seeds.

This year’s Round of 64 matchups are:

#5 Michigan vs. #12 UC San Diego

#5 Oregon vs. #12 Liberty

#5 Memphis vs. #12 Colorado State

#5 Clemson vs. #12 McNeese State

My take

If I had to pick one 12-seed to advance to the Round of 32, I am leaning towards Colorado State. Sportsbooks are actually favoring Colorado State to win (-2.5 as of this writing).

The Rams are 34th in the country in field goal percentage while Memphis’ defense ranks 74th in field goal percentage allowed. More importantly, Memphis’ defense is the 236th-worst team in the country when it comes to assists, allowing 13.7 per game. Meanwhile, Colorado State is 25th in assists per game.

This is an unfavorable matchup for the Tigers.

Pick a higher-seeded team to make the Final Four

Over the last 14 years, the Final Four has featured at least one team seeded fourth or higher. On top of that, a team seeded seventh or higher has reached the Final Four in ten of the last 11 tournaments.

It’s also worth noting that number-one seeds are not a lock to make it to the Final Four. Only once has the Final Four featured all number-one seeds (2008).

My take

There are a few dark horse teams that I could see making a run to the Final Four.

• #5 Michigan
  • The Wolverines should have been seeded better than fifth in the South Region. After all, they beat Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament Championship, and they’re ranked as a three-seed in the East Region.
  • They’re a top-50 team in field goal percentage, rebounds, and assists on the offensive side of the ball.
• #8 UConn
  • This is a team that is coming off of back-to-back Championship runs, so they clearly know how to win and sustain momentum throughout the NCAA Tournament.
  • They rank 32nd in field goal percentage and sixth in assists per game, which tells me they don’t rely on one shooter to win games.
  • The Huskies are fifth in rebounds allowed and 14th in assists allowed, meaning their opponents don’t get many second-chance opportunities.
• #11 Drake
  • This team knows how to run away with games after finishing the regular season with the 19th-highest point differential in the country (+11.6 points per game).
  • They also are defensive juggernauts (first in points per game allowed, first in rebounds per game allowed, and seventh in assists per game allowed).

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A one-seed will probably be the champion

While it’s not smart to pick all number-one seeds to reach the Final Four, it is wise to have a number-one seed as your champion.

Since the bracket field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a number-one seed has won the NCAA Championship 25 times. Additionally, 13 of the last 17 National Champions were ranked as a number-one seed in their region.

My take

This year’s number-one seeds are Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn.

I’m somewhat weary of Houston and Florida. I think they’re only one-seeds because they won their Conference Tournament Championships.

39 Final Fours since 1985; 33 have seen either one or two one seeds. If you’re picking more than two ones to get to the Final Four, you’re probably not going to win your bracket pool. Only once have all four ones made it, which is the same number of times none made it.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 18, 2025

They also both have incredibly difficult paths to the Final Four. Florida will need to compete with teams like UConn, Drake, Missouri (who they lost to earlier this season), St. John’s, and Maryland. Houston will have to fend off squads like Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Kentucky.

Amongst the one-seeds, I am leaning towards Auburn. While I think Duke could end up being a better team, the Blue Devils are dealing with injuries to key players, which makes me hesitant to pick them. Cooper Flagg should be good to go on Friday, but they could still struggle if he’s not at 100%. The status of forward Maliq Brown is also up in the air, and he’s the team’s fifth-best rebounder.

Auburn is tenth in points per game scored and eighth in point differential per game. They’ve played all the other number-one seeds and 18 of the 68 teams participating in the tournament, so they’re battle-tested. They were also the best team in a highly competitive SEC that just broke the record with 14 teams earning a March Madness bid.

There’s a reason why they were picked as the number-one overall team in the tournament.

Statistics and historical trends say five teams can win it all

According to a social media post from the fantasy and sportsbook application Betr, there are six requirements that teams must meet in order to win a championship.

1. The team is top 57 in KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom is the advanced metric system created by former college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy).
2. The team is top 37 in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
3. The team did not lose the first game they played in their Conference Tournament.
4. The team has four or more teams from their conference participating in the NCAA Tournament.
5. The team must have been ranked in the top 12 of the AP Poll in Week Six of the NCAA Basketball season (this was true for the last 20 NCAA Tournament Champions).
6. The team has to have won at least 25 games before the start of March Madness.

Based on these criteria, that leaves us with five teams who can possibly win the 2025 NCAA Tournament: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Florida, and Tennessee.

My take

While I do not believe a mathematical formula can correctly predict the eventual college basketball championship, the options we are left with are all really good. We have three number-one seeds and two number-two seeds to choose from.

Each one of these teams has statistics that bode really well for their success. Alabama is the top-scoring and rebounding team in the country while Florida ranks third in both of those categories. Tennessee is the best defensive three-point team in the NCAA while holding opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the country. Auburn is the number-one overall seed in the tournament with its only losses coming against teams ranked in the Top 25 this season. Duke has the largest average margin of victory in the country.

Any one of these teams would be a good choice to be the 2025 NCAA Champion.