The AFC Championship has been played yearly since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970. Much like the George Halas Trophy in the NFC, the AFC champion has been awarded the Lamar Hunt Trophy – named after AFL co-founder and longtime Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt – annually since the beginning of the 1984-85 season.
Prior to the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City had one Super Bowl victory and just one appearance in the AFC Championship Game (1994). Since Mahomes became the Chiefs’ full-time starter in 2018, KC has made seven consecutive AFC Championship Games and won three Lombardi trophies with their eyes set on the first three-peat in Super Bowl history.
The Buffalo Bills have appeared in six AFC Championships, winning four straight from 1991 to 1994. In 2021, Buffalo made it back to the AFCCG after a 27-year drought but lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City 38-24.
This weekend, the Bills-Chiefs rivalry is renewed with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line, so let’s take a look at the AFC Championship Game and predict the winner.
📰 Table Of Contents
Sunday Night Game
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
The 2025 AFCCG represents the fourth head-to-head postseason matchup between Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Though Allen has been excellent in these games, Mahomes has a 3-0 advantage over the two-time Second-Team All-Pro.
Mahomes and the Chiefs lead the series for a few different reasons. Firstly, Patrick Mahomes has been even better than Allen in these contests. Mahomes has more passing touchdowns (eight vs. seven), fewer sacks (three vs. six), a higher completion percentage (75.2% vs. 65.3%), fewer interceptions (one vs. zero), and a better quarterback rating (126.6 vs. 98.9) than Josh Allen. I’m not saying that Allen has been bad in these matchups, but the numbers show that Mahomes has been better.
Buffalo is also winless against KC in the playoffs during the Mahomes era because of defensive shortcomings. The Bills have given up 35.7 points per game to the Chiefs in these contests. That simply isn’t good enough when facing future Hall of Famers like head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Despite Buffalo’s playoff downfalls, Josh Allen and the Bills have a 4-1 record against the Chiefs in the regular season. The most recent victory came in Week 11 when Buffalo handed Kansas City its only loss of the 2024-25 campaign with Patrick Mahomes starting. The Bills should try to emulate their game plan from that matchup if they want to advance to their first Super Bowl in 21 years.
Buffalo beat the Chiefs in Week 11 because they won the turnover battle, limited their mental mistakes, and played well on third down and fourth down offensively. Mahomes threw two interceptions the first time around, which is uncharacteristic for a guy with the second-highest quarterback rating in NFL history (102.1). The Bills also had half as many penalties as the Chiefs, who were flagged six times for a whopping 57 yards. Lastly, Buffalo converted 58.8% of its third and fourth down attempts while KC’s conversion rate on those downs was only 45.5%. It sounds like the Bills will have to be near-perfect if they want to win the AFC Championship.
What’s worrisome is the fact that Buffalo has yet to play a complete playoff game this season where they looked good in both the first half and the second half. Against the Denver Broncos, the Bills went down early and were a missed field goal away from being tied at halftime rather than going into the break with a 10-7 lead. One week later, Buffalo got out to a hot start against the Baltimore Ravens by going up 21-10 in the first half, only to be outscored 15-6 in the third and fourth quarters. When facing the defending Super Bowl champs, the Bills will need to be good for all four quarters.
Kansas City’s path to victory will come on the defensive side of the ball. With Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce leading the charge, you can all but guarantee the Chiefs will put up at least 20 points, even in what could be considered a down year for Mahomes. KC’s defense will need to answer the call by doing what it does best: preventing touchdowns.
If we eliminate the outlier Week 18 matchup the Chiefs had against the Broncos where their second-stringers allowed 38 points, KC is only surrendering 17.8 points per game this season. With the Denver game removed from the equation, Kansas City’s defense was tied for the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed and tied for the seventh-fewest rushing touchdowns given up.
Similarly to Week 11, third-down efficiency will play a monumental part in who ends up winning. The Chiefs are allowing opponents to convert 44.4% of their third-down tries. At the same time, the Bills come into this one converting 44.7% of their third downs. Clearly, these two are neck-and-neck on the money down, but I think Buffalo will struggle more this time around because they don’t have the benefit of playing at home where they finished the campaign 10-0.
There is so little separating these teams, which has me favoring the Chiefs to advance to their third straight Super Bowl. The Bills are undoubtedly a good team, but Kansas City hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in the postseason over recent years. This is a classic case of I have to see it to believe it. Once I see the Chiefs lose to Buffalo in the playoffs, I’ll believe in the Bills. Until then, KC should always be favored, especially at home.
I think Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs on a game-winning drive, and Kansas City kicks a field goal as time expires.
Chiefs win 24-23
