We are now down to the final eight teams after a crazy Wild Card Weekend.
Much like last week, the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs will feature a few rematches. The Texans will be looking to get revenge for their Week 16 loss to the Chiefs. Later on, the Ravens will try to have another dominant performance over the Bills like they had in late September. Also, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley will attempt to replicate his historic Week 12 performance when he rushed for 255 yards.
The only first-time matchup of the weekend will take place at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday when the Lions play the Commanders and phenom rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in their second home playoff game over the last two seasons.
Let’s take a look at the Divisional Round slate and predict the winners.
📰 Table Of Contents
Saturday Games
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Houston Texans will travel to Kansas City for the second time in five weeks to take on the 15-2 Chiefs, who are 8-0 at Arrowhead Stadium during the 2024-25 campaign. In fact, KC’s last home loss came over a year ago on Christmas Day 2023.
When these squads first matched up, the game was incredibly balanced. Both teams were 7/13 on third-down conversions and averaged 5.4 yards per play on nine drives. The difference was Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud threw two interceptions while Kansas City avoided turning the ball over. Houston was also penalized six times for 45 yards. The Texans definitely have a shot, but they will need to clean up those mistakes if they want to beat the reigning Super Bowl champs on the road.
The other key factor for Houston will be keeping C.J. Stroud upright. Coming into this game, Stroud is the third-most sacked quarterback in the NFL behind only the Bears’ Caleb Williams (68) and the Vikings’ Sam Darnold (57). If Houston can limit KC’s tenth-ranked pass rush, then they’ll be in good shape.
Also, the Texans’ defense finished the regular season tied for the fourth most sacks in the NFL. Therefore, they’ll need to take down Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes if they want to pull off the upset.
The problem is that Houston has allowed the third most passing touchdowns this year, and they are going up against a future Hall of Famer in Mahomes, who completed 68.3% of his passes in the first game against the Texans for 260 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns while dealing with an injured leg.
Don’t expect the Chiefs to make the same errors the Chargers did, especially at home.
Chiefs win 26-22
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Washington’s miraculous turnaround brings them to Detroit, where they will face off against the Lions, who were able to get healthier with a bye during Wild Card Weekend.
The Lions have only lost two games this season, so there isn’t much tape that highlights their weaknesses. In both of those matchups, the Lions lost the turnover battle. More importantly, Detroit had to deal with early deficits after going down 13-6 to the Buccaneers and 35-14 to the Bills. If the Commanders win the coin toss, it would serve them well to receive the opening kickoff rather than defer to the second half.
Washington should also spend a lot of time re-watching the Bills-Lions game since one of Detroit’s two losses came against Buffalo QB Josh Allen, who is a dual-threat passer like Jayden Daniels. With that in mind, it will be hard for Daniels to emulate Allen’s performance (362 passing yards, 68 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns). 62 rushing yards should be easy for the rookie QB who has averaged 51.5 ground yards in 18 games. The difficult part will be throwing for 362 yards because Daniels’ career-high of 326 yards came against the Chicago Bears only because of a 52-yard Hail Mary pass to win the game as time expired. If you take away that throw, then he only had 274 passing yards. I am just not confident that a rookie quarterback will be able to put up 400+ total yards and four touchdowns against the second-best team in the NFL.
The Commanders’ defense could also struggle against the Lions and their top-ranked scoring offense. Washington has problems forcing turnovers with just 18 in 18 games this season. On top of that, the Commanders had the third-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 137.5 yards per game. With Jahmyr Gibbs on a tear as of late and David Montgomery expected to play, Detroit’s sixth-ranked rushing attack will rip through Washington’s defense.
The Lions will lean heavily on the ground game to eat up the clock and keep Jayden Daniels off the field. By limiting the likely Rookie of the Year, Detroit should beat Washington.
Lions win 31-22
Sunday Games
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams should be a little worried coming into this matchup because the Eagles (namely running back Saquon Barkley) smacked them around for a 37-20 win. Barkley had 302 scrimmage yards on just 30 touches, which equates to 10.1 yards per touch. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula will need to emphasize not letting the First-Team All-Pro beat them. LA might want to watch the first three quarters of the Packers-Eagles game because Green Bay held Saquon to 74 rushing yards before the fourth quarter began.
Meanwhile, the Rams’ offense will have its hands full. The Eagles’ defense ranked first in total yards per game allowed and second in points allowed behind only the Los Angeles Chargers. Philly flexed its defensive dominance in the Wild Card Round by forcing Packers quarterback Jordan Love to throw three interceptions. Prior to that matchup, Love had gone seven straight games without an interception. Though Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown a pick in the postseason since February 13th, 2022, he also hasn’t faced a playoff defense like this in several years.
Los Angeles is playing this weekend because they sacked Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold nine times, tied for the most ever by a team in a single postseason game. It seems highly improbable that the Rams will be able to duplicate that performance, but that doesn’t mean the defense still can’t get after the quarterback. The issue is that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is much more mobile than Sam Darnold. That would explain why Hurts has been sacked 40 times while Darnold was taken down 57 times. The young LA defense could potentially have three to four sacks. Five would be pushing it, but I just don’t see the Rams recording six sacks or more.
In all likelihood, Saquon Barkley will not accumulate 300+ yards this time. With that in mind, LA must hold Barkley under 112 total yards because that was his average in the Eagles’ 15 wins during the regular season and the playoffs. That’s going to be incredibly tough to do considering Los Angeles allows 348.4 yards per game. Even if the Rams manage to stop Saquon, they’ll probably struggle with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and company.
Philadelphia will defeat the Rams, albeit not as comfortably as they did the first time around.
Eagles win 28-24
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Arguably the most exciting game of the Divisional Round will be the last one of the weekend when the Ravens and Bills go head-to-head for the second time this season. Buffalo will look for a very different result from the Week Four matchup when they fell 35-10 on the road.
There were two major reasons why the Bills lost that game. First, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen had one of his worst performances of the season, being held to zero touchdowns, 180 passing yards, 21 rushing yards, and a lost fumble. The other factor that contributed to the loss was Baltimore rushing for 271 yards at a clip of eight yards per carry. There were many other issues for Buffalo – three third-down conversions, 12 total first downs, finding the end zone once on two red zone trips, etc. – but Josh Allen’s poor performance coupled with the Ravens’ rushing dominance was the cause of the Bills’ downfall.
This matchup being played in Buffalo (where the Bills are 9-0 this season) will generate different results than last time. Buffalo averages 33.9 points per game at home versus 27.9 points per game on the road. The defense really benefits from the home-field advantage, limiting opponents to just 16.4 points per game at Highmark Stadium. There is no way that the Bills will be held to ten points in front of that raucous crowd. Bills Mafia could be in trouble because the Ravens still managed 29.6 points per game on the road this season.
At the end of the day, Buffalo will win this game if they can do the unthinkable and contain Baltimore running back Derrick Henry. He averages 117.1 rushing yards per game this season and gashed the Bills’ defense for 199 yards the last time they played. While Henry averaged six yards per carry during the 2024-25 campaign, he managed 8.3 yards per attempt in Week Four. With a defense that holds opposing rushers to 4.86 yards per carry at home, Buffalo should have a better outing this time. However, it’s worth noting that nobody has been able to handle Derrick Henry this season besides the Chiefs in Week One, who held him to 3.5 yards per run.
The Bills will need Josh Allen to have an MVP-caliber performance. While he’s more than capable of doing that, I worry Allen will not be able to throw for 300+ yards and rush for 50+ yards against a Ravens defense that allows only 20.8 points and less than 322 total yards per game. Josh Allen will play well, but it won’t be enough to overcome Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Ravens win 27-26
