This weekend marks only the second time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams that the Final Four will consist of all number-one seeds. The first time this happened was in 2008, when the Memphis Tigers defeated the UCLA Bruins while the Kansas Jayhawks beat the North Carolina Tar Heels.
This time around, there isn’t a team like the Memphis Tigers who come into the weekend without much prior success. All four remaining squads are blueblood programs that have long histories of success.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Final Four and predict the winners.
📰 Table Of Contents
Final Four
#1 Florida Gators vs. #1 Auburn Tigers
This is not the first time that the Gators and Tigers have played each other this season. Interestingly enough, these two faced off not that long ago on February 8th in Auburn, Alabama. Despite being on the road, Florida was able to beat Auburn 90-81 in one of the best regular-season college basketball games of the year.
There were a few reasons why the Gators were able to win that game. Firstly, they had the advantage of going into halftime with a ten-point lead, which they were able to ride to the end of the game. After the break, the Tigers never came within eight points of Florida.
Another reason they won was that they were just better at shooting the ball that night. The Gators shot 48.4% from the field and were 39.4% from three. Meanwhile, Auburn was 42.9% from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc. It also doesn’t help that the Tigers missed nine of their 24 free-throw attempts.
Coach Pearl had heavy praise for the Gators 😅#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/NuhlOdmSkW
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 4, 2025
Ignoring both of their first-round matchups against 16-seeds, Auburn is averaging 76.7 points per game, while Florida averages 82.7 points per game, so the Gators have the offensive advantage. However, Auburn plays better defense, allowing almost nine fewer points per game than Florida.
I think three-point shooting will be a huge difference-maker in this contest. The Gators are making 40.8% of their three-pointers in their last three games. Unfortunately for Auburn, they’ve only made 30.6% of their threes since the start of the Round of 32.
I’m also slightly concerned about the health of Auburn’s best player, Johni Broome, who hyperextended his elbow in the Elite Eight. Even though he returned to that game, if he’s 100% in the Final Four, then the Tigers won’t have a shot of advancing to the National Championship Game.
Gators win 81-77
#1 Duke Blue Devils vs. #1 Houston Cougars
I think a lot of people are counting the Cougars out, which will make them a dangerous opponent. Disrespected teams are often the ones that make history. At the very least, I don’t think the Blue Devils will run away with this game as they have in every other NCAA Tournament matchup (Duke’s average margin of victory over their last four matchups is 23.5 games).
These squads are like opposites of one another. Duke is an offensive juggernaut (ninth in points per game) being led by the best basketball player in the country, Cooper Flagg. On the other side, you have the defensive stalwart Houston Cougars, who are allowing the fewest points per game in the country (58.3). Though they’re an excellent basketball team, I doubt that many people who didn’t watch the NCAA Tournament could name a single member of the 2024-25 Cougars team.
Since Duke’s offense and Houston’s defense will cancel each other out, I want to examine the Cougars’ offense vs. the Blue Devils’ defense.
“This Duke defense is really good and they’re really long.”@wallyball says Houston needs to knock down any open shots it gets against Duke’s defense pic.twitter.com/dHBznenMCf
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) April 4, 2025
Offensively, Houston is ranked 169th in the country, averaging just 74 points per game. That simply won’t be good enough, considering they have to face a Blue Devils squad that is seventh in the nation defensively (62.6 points per game allowed). At the same time, Houston has somehow been worse on the offensive side of the ball during the NCAA Tournament, averaging 72.5 points per game in four matchups.
On top of that, Houston has only made 42% of their shots in the tournament, while Duke is holding their March Madness opponents to 37% from the field, which would easily be the lowest allowed field goal percentage in the country (Houston’s number-one ranked defense has allowed opponents to make 38.2% of their field goals this season).
The amazing run for the Cougars will fall short as the Duke Blue Devils’ defense shuts down Houston’s offense.
