The Final Four has been whittled down to the last two teams in the country.

The Florida Gators outpaced the Auburn Tigers to reach their fourth NCAA Championship Game all-time. Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars completed one of the all-time great comebacks against the Duke Blue Devils for the program’s third-ever National Championship Game berth.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s matchup and predict who will be the 2024-25 Men’s College Basketball National Champions.

National Championship Game

#1 Florida Gators vs. #1 Houston Cougars

How did Florida get here?

The Florida Gators emerged as one of the best teams in the most competitive college basketball conference we have ever seen. After finishing the regular season with a 27-4 record, the Gators have been on an absolute tear, winning their last eight consecutive games. They started by beating the Missouri Tigers (who earned a berth in the NCAA Tournament) before downing two Elite Eight teams in Alabama and Tennessee to win the SEC Tournament Championship.

soon 👀 pic.twitter.com/vnisXQjvId

— Florida Gators (@FloridaGators) April 7, 2025

Their dominance over the SEC earned the Gators the number-one seed in the West Region of the tournament. After making minced meat of Norfolk State, Florida knocked off the two-time reigning champions in the Round of 32 by beating the UConn Huskies 77-75. In the Sweet 16, they blew the doors off of Maryland with an 87-71 win before squeaking past the number-three-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. That brought us to this past Saturday, where they beat the number-one overall seed, the Auburn Tigers, for the second time this season.

Now, the Gators are looking to win their third-ever NCAA Tournament Championship and their first title since they won back-to-back Championships in 2006 and 2007.

How did Houston get here?

The Houston Cougars also secured a 27-4 record this season before going on this impressive run. They won the Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship by beating Colorado, BYU, and Arizona, which went on to the Sweet 16.

After winning their Conference Tournament Championship, the Houston Cougars earned their third-straight March Madness number-one seed. Following an easy 38-point win in the Round of 64, the Cougs had back-to-back close games against Gonzaga and the reigning runner-up, Purdue. Once they got over those humps, Houston annihilated the number-two-seeded Tennessee Volunteers 69-50 in the Elite Eight, to earn the school its seventh-ever Final Four appearance.

Notes and numbers for TONIGHT’s #MarchMadness National Championship Game vs Florida#ForTheCity x #GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/NMTvosjsvg

— Houston Men’s Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) April 7, 2025

They had a tall task going up against the Duke Blue Devils, who were leading by nine points with 2:15 left in the National Semi-Final. However, Houston ended the game on a 15-3 run, outscoring the Blue Devils 11-1 in the final 1:26 of the game to knock off Duke and reach the National Championship Game for the first time since 1984.

If the Cougars can pull off the win tonight, it’ll be the first National Championship victory in the program’s 80-year history.

Keys to victory

This is a classic case of an immovable force meeting an unstoppable object. The Gators have the third-ranked offense in the country, while the Cougars are equipped with the nation’s top-ranked defense.

These teams have somehow managed to play at or near their impressive averages during the NCAA Tournament. Houston is only giving up 58.6 points per game in five March Madness contests, which is right around the Cougars’ season average. Simultaneously, the Gators’ offense is averaging 84.4 points per game, which is just slightly below their expected scoring output for the season (85.3 ppg).

One thing I think we can expect is another stellar performance from Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., regardless of what Houston’s defense is able to throw at the senior guard. He’s been averaging 24.6 points per game since the start of March Madness. I don’t believe Walter Clayton Jr. will go off for 30 points for a third-straight game, but I think he will be able to beat his tournament average, going for 26 to 28 points tonight. After all, Houston struggled to contain Duke’s best player, Cooper Flagg, who scored 27 points (six more than his tournament average). Even though Clayton Jr. will probably have a good game, the Cougars can still pull off the victory.

Monday night is gonna be special 🍿@GatorsMBK vs. @UHCougarMBK for the national championship on @CBS and @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/UxoSsVZpoQ

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) April 6, 2025

The Cougs’ path to victory will come down to containing the rest of Florida’s players. This is the approach Houston used against Duke, allowing just one other Blue Devil to reach double digits (Kon Knueppel). Outside of Knueppel and Flagg, Duke’s eight other players combined for just 24 points while shooting 32% from the field. This type of smothering defense will be critical against a Florida team that has seven players who average at least six points per game.

For Florida to win, they simply need to continue to shoot the ball well from three-point land. If we factor out their first-round matchup against Norfolk State (where they somehow only converted on 31.3% of their threes), the Gators are making 40.2% of their three-pointers in their other four NCAA Tournament games, which would be the highest mark in the country. I don’t expect them to make 40% of their shots from beyond the arc against the best defensive team in the country, but if they can hover around or above the 35% threshold, then they’ll have a great chance to win.

My prediction

Last time out, I predicted the Gators and Blue Devils would meet in the National Championship Game because I thought that Duke’s seventh-ranked scoring defense would have been able to pump the breaks on the Cougs. Had it not been for one of the biggest collapses in college basketball history, my prediction for the National Championship would’ve been correct.

What I failed to take into consideration was the fact that Houston is the best three-point shooting team in the country, as demonstrated by their 45.5% conversion rate from beyond the arc. Everybody gets so caught up talking about the team’s defense that I think people often overlook the Cougars’ offensive prowess. They’re not going to wow you with their overall field goal percentage, but their three-point conversion rate is something to marvel at.

“You never lose unless you quit.” 👏@TheAndyKatz sat down with Kelvin Sampson to talk Houston’s comeback in the #MFinalFour and preview the #NationalChampionship game tonight 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/hR9wcVEj4w

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 7, 2025

Unlike Duke, which was ranked 49th in the country in three-point defense, Florida comes into this matchup with the eighth-ranked three-point defense. We’re so busy talking about the Gators’ offense that we forget they’re only allowing their opponents to make 28.9% of their three-pointers during March Madness.

As I said previously, the Cougars are only here because of a catastrophic meltdown by Duke. I do not think the same fate will befall Florida.

Gators win 73-70